Methodology

How do we come up with our ratings for our US Senate election stories?  Well, we have several ways (in no special order). 

1)  We are not above reading what other experts think.

We don’t always agree with these sources, but we respect their methods and take their work seriously.  In no special order, they are:

  • Cook Political Report
  • Roll Call
  • Rothenberg Political Report
  • Sabato’s Chrystal Ball

You can find them linked in our blog roll.  Some are free, and others have a cost associated with them.

2)  Polling. 

There are many, many polls in the market place of ideas.  Some have a better track record than others, and some we don’t trust at all.  We are careful to determine if the polls we have seen over or under-represent a political party in their pool, we favor tracking polls (that go on over a period of time and drop extremes from the average), and we consider if polls screen out unlikely voters.  While the most accurate polls are “insider” polling done by each of the major parties, these polls can often be “shaped” when supposedly “leaked” to the press, so we discredit most of these.

3)  Inside sources.

We accept information from campaigns, journalists, and others.  We keep a healthy level of skepticism if the source is biased.  We are careful when considering allegations that a scandal may break unless our sourcing is solid.  While our site makes no apology for being conservative, we strive to present an accurate picture of which way each election leans in our senate election selection reporting.

Political Daily’s staff have friends from both sides of the aisle, both in politics and in the press.

4)  Public sources.

We read the news for each state, talk to people from those states, look at the history and flavor of the voters, look at candidate voting records, and consider breaking news on the positions or statements of candidates.  This information is available to everybody, but requires a lot of time, energy, and people to assemble and analyze.  We do the work so that you don’t have to.

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No one of the four listed sources can hold on its own.  Polling may be a strong indicator, but may miss an inside scandal brewing from an inside source.  The expert sites may largely agree on one direction, but miss some of the grassroots news on the ground.  And of course, we don’t claim that we’ll always be right either.  Our goal is just to be “more right” than the other guys!

If you want to get a good feel for which way the races are going, we encourage you to read several of the other election prognostication sites and read or watch the news daily, as well as making Political Daily a part of your daily news intake.

We also encourage you to get involved in a campaign that you believe in, republican, democrat or other, and then to vote.  It is the American way after all, and our country is healthier when more people educate themselves and become part of the process.